Pakistan-Afghanistan Update: Violence Precedes Karachi Re-Polling; Afghan Parliament Drops Review of Women’s Protection Bill

Sign up to receive this update by email.

Topline

• Nawaz Sharif and Gen. Kayani held talks in Lahore on Saturday, in which they reportedly professed respect for each other’s institutional interests and agreed on the need for a review of the country’s security and foreign policy. A senior PTI party leader in Karachi, Zahra Shahid Hussain, was killed outside her home on Saturday, prompting protests ahead of Sunday’s partial re-polling in the NA-250 constituency. Boycotts by the MQM, PPP, and other parties led to low reported turnout and an apparent win by the PTI candidate, Arif Alvi. Pres. Karzai travels to India this week to seek military aid after recent Pakistani border clashes. Multiple separate attacks in Afghanistan over the weekend struck several Afghan police and civilian targets, killing as many as three dozen, including the provincial council chairman in Baghlan. The PTI nominee for Khyber Paktunkhwa Chief Minister, Pervez Khattk, has endorsed talks with the Pakistani Taliban, saying “we have no fight with the Taliban nor are we against anyone.” The Afghan parliament dropped a bid to review and pass through legislation the 2009 Elimination of Violence Against Women act, an effort that had divided women’s rights activists and drew denunciations from conservative members of parliament. A senior Jamaat-ud-Dawa aide to Hafeez Saeed, Khalid Bashir, was kidnapped in Lahore and found dead on Friday.

 
Pakistan — Security

• Sharifs and Kayani Meet: Gen. Kayani met with Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif in Lahore on Saturday to discuss “matters of state and future course of action”. Nawaz reportedly assured Kayani that he “had no grudge against the army as an institution” while Kayani reportedly assured Nawaz that the army “fully respects the mandate given to his party.” The Express Tribune reports that both sides agreed to review and “overhaul” the country’s foreign and security policies, which Kayani endorsing an effort by the government to push for a halt to covert U.S. drone attacks. The Express Tribune account also suggests that the two leaders discussed a possible release from detention and tacit expulsion from the country for former Pres. Musharraf. On Friday, Chaudhry Aslam Ghulam, who filed a petition against Musharraf in 2009 in connection with his detention of over 60 judges in 2007, announced his withdrawal from the case on Friday, saying doing so was “in the better interest of the country”; he did not elaborate. The lead prosecutor, Syed Muhammad Tayyab, also withdrew from the case on Friday; a new prosecutor was appointed on Saturday, who received a two-week extension until the next hearing. Musharraf remains under house arrest, but he was granted bail in a case related to the death of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto on Monday. [WAPO]
• Jamaat-ud-Dawa Official Killed: Khalid Bashir, a senior leader of Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the political wing of Lashkar-e-Taiba, was kidnapped from Lahore last week and found dead in Sheikhupura on Friday. Dawn identifies Bashir as a member of the JuD information wing, while the Express Tribune describes him as the chief security officer for JuD leader Hafeez Saeed.
• Attack on Polio Vaccination Team: A police officer guarding a polio vaccination team in the Bajaur Agency during a campaign in the town of Kalam was killed in attack on Monday. No claim of responsibility is reported.

 
Pakistan — Politics and Diplomacy

• PTI Leader Killed in Karachi Ahead of Re-Polling: Zahra Shahid Hussain, a senior Vice President of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf’s Sindh chapter, was killed by unidentified gunmen outside her home in Karachi on Saturday. Her death, initially reported as a robbery but subsequently described by police as an incident of targeted killing, comes at a time of heightened tensions between the PTI and the MQM over the outcome in the NA-250 constituency, where re-polling had been scheduled to take place on Sunday after allegations of vote-rigging on election day. On Friday the Election Commission ruled that it would proceed with re-polling at 43 out of 180 polling stations in the NA-250 constituency, prompting the MQM to announce a boycott, saying that the commission was ignoring evidence of rigging at other stations, where it had also sought fresh polling. The PPP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and Majlis-i-Wahdat-i-Muslimeen parties have also announced boycotts. Army and paramilitary Rangers were deployed inside and outside the polling stations on Sunday, with low turnout reported. Unofficial results indicate that the PTI candidate, Arif Alvi, has won the seat. Imran Khan laid blame for Zahra Hussain’s death on MQM leader Altaf Hussain, who he said had “openly threatened PTI workers and leaders”. The MQM issued a statement of condolence but condemned Khan’s remarks, calling for a judicial inquiry and suggesting that “we think this was a move to malign the character of Altaf Hussain.” MQM and PTI supporters held counter-protests against each other on Sunday; a Hyderabad PTI candidate’s residence was also attacked by unidentified gunmen. [BBC] [Guardian] [AJE] [Reuters] [Dawn] [ET] [Dawn] [Dawn]
• National Government Negotiations: Dawn suggests that Nawaz Sharif may seek to be sworn in as prime minister on May 28, the anniversary of Pakistan’s 1998 nuclear tests, although Election Commission of Pakistan officials are still in the process of finalizing results this week. Speaking to journalists on Friday, Shahbaz Sharif accused the caretaker government of making appointments “at the behest of Pres. Zardari” and said it should refrain from doing so until the new government is sworn in. Dawn indicates that the PML-N is seeking to bring the JUI-F into a national coalition in an effort to strengthen its position in the upper senate house, where the PPP still holds the largest plurality. Maulana Fazlur Rehman has thus far remained publicly noncommittal, although a negotiating committee has been established. Six independent national assembly members from FATA and at least seven Punjab provincial assembly members and one national assembly member announced their intention to join the PML-N over the weekend. [Dawn] [Dawn]
• Incoming Khyber Paktunkhwa Chief Minister Endorses Taliban Talks: Pervez Khattak, the PTI’s candidate for chief minister in the next Khyber Paktunkhwa government, told reporters on Friday that he would negotiate with the Pakistani Taliban, saying that “we have no fight with the Taliban nor are we against anyone… we appeal to Taliban that we are not at war with you, this province is yours and we are hopeful you will work for its peace.” Opposition leaders in KP are doubtful about the new PTI government’s ability to deliver on this or other pledges. The Jamaat-e-Islami announced its three choices for cabinet ministers in the new government, although there appears to be an unresolved dispute over whether the party will hold the education ministry. [ET] [ET] [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET]
• Balochistan Government Negotiations: The PML-N, Paktunkhwa Milli Awami Party, and National Party have reached an agreement on the formation of a coalition government in Balochistan, they announced Friday, which is expected to be led by PML-N provincial leader Sanaullah Zehri. The JUI-F has also reportedly been offered to join the coalition, though they have yet to confirm their participation; the PkMAP and NP have reportedly objected to its inclusion. [Dawn] [ET] [ET]
• Other Contested Elections: Besides NA-250 Karachi, the Election Commission has ordered re-polling be conducted on June 1 in the NA-229 and NA-230 constituencies. The Khyber Agency political agent has requested that re-polling for 21 polling stations for the NA-46 Bara constituency be postponed until June. The PML-F has again called for province-wide strikes in Sindh on May 22 against what it said was a “fake mandate” for the PPP. Both the PPP and the JUI-F have alleged that election results in Balochistan were manipulated, with the former accusing paramilitary Frontier Corps and the latter “Western powers”. PTI protests continue against the results in Punjab, with a large protest scheduled to take place in Islamabad on May 24. [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET] [Dawn] [ET]

 
Pakistan — Economics and Development

• Fiscal Crisis: The federal budget deficit rose to Rs 1.286 trillion, or around 5.6% of GDP, during the first ten months of the fiscal year, above a target of 5% for the year. Thus far, the Federal Board Revenue has been able to collect only Rs 1.485 trillion in tax revenues; the FBR has reportedly proposed renewing special excise taxes on around two dozen goods and services, which the previous government had begun to phase out in 2011. PML-N sources tell Dawn that the new government is unlikely to seek a new loan agreement with the IMF within the next three to six months, given the constraints such a program might place on its ambitious, albeit vaguely defined, economic rehabilitation strategy.

 
Pakistan — Remainders

• Pakistan Rail, Rusting in Its Tracks [NYT]
• Displaced Dera Bugti Residents Appeal to Supreme Court [ET]
• Former Prime Minister Ashraf Denies Kickback Charges [ET]
• PPP Leaders Assess Losses and Next Steps [ET] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn]
• Imran Khan Still Undecided on Seat Choice [Dawn]
• Chinese National Working on Kashmir Energy Project Arrested on Blasphemy Charge [Dawn]
• Energy Regulators Approve Service Price Increase [ET] [ET]
• Commentary: End of the Electables? – “Instead of lapsing back into the politics of patronage, going local and flocking to the constituency politician, the electable, who can offer some protection against the state and economic winds, the voter took a leap of faith — towards one party.” [Cyril Almeida, Dawn]

 
Afghanistan — Security

• Security Partnership Negotiations: TOLO reports that the presidency released a statement on Sunday following a telephone conversation with Secretary of State Kerry in which he said that he would “never sign” a bilateral security agreement with the United States “when violence is still prevalent in Afghanistan”; the item does not elaborate. On Monday, Karzai departed for India, where his spokesman confirmed he would discuss recent border clashes with Pakistan and would appeal for additional military aid. [TOLO]
• Attacks: More than three dozen Afghan police officers and civilians have been killed in separate attacks since Friday. In one incident, the a district police chief was killed in Farah province on Friday; also on Friday, at least nine people were killed in two separate bombings at a gated housing complex in Kandahar, which is owned by Mahmoud Karzai. On Monday, the head of the Baghlan provincial council, Mohammad Rasol Mohseni, was killed in a suicide bombing outside his office in the provincial capital of Pul-e-Khumri; thirteen other people were killed and at least ten wounded. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack. [NYT] [WSJ] [TOLO] [BBC]

 
Afghanistan — Politics and Diplomacy

• Bid to Amend Women’s Violence Act Dropped: On Saturday Afghan parliamentarians quickly shelved a bid to review the country’s Elimination of Violence Against Women act, which was instituted through executive ordinance in 2009 and whose passage through parliament has divided women’s rights advocates, many of whom expressed concern that conservative MPs would water down or remove many of its protections. In brief debate, several legislators decried the law as un-Islamic, objecting to marriage age restrictions, provisions for rape charges within marriage, and its support for women’s shelters, which have been popularly portrayed as sources of prostitution. [BBC] [TOLO]
• Electoral Law Debate: Pres. Karzai met with a delegation of parliamentary committee heads on Sunday and urged them to pass laws governing the structure of the Independent Elections Commission and Electoral Complaints Commission; Karzai previously rejected earlier drafts bills, objecting to the retention of the ECC and the creation of a new committee to manage appointments to the IEC.

 
Afghanistan — Remainders

• Russia Mulls Troop Deployment to Tajik-Afghan Border [Reuters]
• Without U.S. Helicopters, Afghans Struggle to Save Wounded [WAPO]
• Afghan Senators Accuse Hezb-e-Islami of “Infiltrating” Presidency [TOLO]
• Attorney General’s Office Seeks Investigations of MPs Charged with Corruption [TOLO]
• Commentary: The Evolving Taliban: Changes in the Insurgency’s DNA – “As of yet, the old Emirate command structure remains active in the Taleban’s southern heartland, but the east, Loya Paktia and the north have all seen the impact of Pakistani efforts to select and promote its own proxies within the Taleban, men who have been given special training and, frequently, Pakistani citizenship.” [Claudio Franco, AAN]
• Commentary: Moving East in the North: Transitioned Faryab and the Taleban – “It took little more than seven months to turn Faryab from a province with a worrisome security situation into a province under constant attack.” [Obaid Ali, AAN]
• Commentary: Damage Avoided, For Now? The Very Short Debate About the EVAW Law – “Putting the EVAW up for parliamentary scrutiny has given conservative and religious circles some leverage to reiterate their arguments and influence the law’s content.” [Christine Roehrs and Ehsan Qaane, AAN]

Pakistan-Afghanistan Update: Partial Karachi Re-Polling May Proceed Sunday; Afghan Finance Minister Rejects SIGAR Tax Report

Sign up to receive this update by email.

Note: I will be on travel to Pakistan for the next two months. All efforts will be made to continue regular daily news updates during this period; however, unplanned disruptions in service are possible. In the event that this occurs, summaries will return with coverage of the intervening period as soon as possible. Thank you for your understanding, and thanks for reading.

Topline

• The Election Commission has rejected an MQM petition for re-polling in all of the NA-250 Karachi constituency; the Sindh government has refuted earlier reports that it is unprepared to carry out the exercise as ordered this Sunday. Two bombs at separate mosques in the Malakand district have killed at least ten people. Afghanistan’s finance minister has disputed a recent SIGAR audit alleging the Afghan government levied nearly a billion dollars in inappropriate taxes and penalties on contractors working for the U.S. government. Pakistani commanders express concern to the WSJ about a growing safe haven for Pakistani militants across the Afghan border.

Pakistan — Security

• Malakand Bombings: Twin bombings struck two separate mosques in the Baz Darrah village in Malakand district shortly after Friday prayers; at least ten people have been killed and twenty or more injured. Recovery efforts are ongoing, and no claim of responsibility or specific target has been reported.
• GIlani Kidnapping: Police are searching the Mardan district after earlier raids released a man taken prisoner in Peshawar who said that Ali Haider Gilani, son of former Prime Minister Gilani, had also been held captive with him before being moved to another location. At least two of the kidnappers have been identified as Afghan nationals; police say they arrested the head of the gang, identified as Wazir Gul, on Friday.
• NATO Supply Line Attacks: Two drivers for trucks carrying NATO supplies bound for Afghanistan were killed in separate attacks in Peshawar and the Jamrud area of the Khyber Agency on Thursday.

Pakistan — Politics and Diplomacy

• Government Formation: The PML-N has reportedly neared agreement on its nominees for the federal cabinet; retired Gen. Qadir Baloch appears to be confirmed as the choice for interior ministry. Sen. Ishaq Dar will serve as finance minister and Sartaj Aziz as advisor to the prime minister on the economy; both men are also said to be under consideration for the position of foreign minister or advisor to the prime minister on foreign affairs. In Sindh, the National People’s Party, a breakaway faction of the PPP formed in 1986, has announced its merger with the PML-N; in the most recent elections, the NPP won two national assembly and three Sindh provincial assembly seats. Four independent candidates, previously members of the PML-Q, have joined the PML-N instead. Several independents in Balochistan have also joined the party, raising its representation in the provincial assembly there to twelve seats and giving it the lead in the formation of a government; the PML-Q provincial party chief has also pledged that its four members in the assembly will support the PML-N. [ET] [ET] [Dawn] [Dawn]
• Karachi Re-Polling: The Sindh government has refuted a letter it allegedly sent to the Election Commission professing inability to conduct partial re-polling at 43 polling stations in Karachi this Sunday due to security concerns. Sharfuddin Memon, special assistant to the Sindh chief minister on home affairs, tells the Express Tribune that the letter had been “managed by those who claim to have a heavy mandate in Karachi,” an apparent reference to the MQM; he said the government was prepared to carry out the re-polling exercise. Gen. Kayani met with Chief Election Commissioner Ebrahim on Thursday and assured him of the military’s support for the re-polling. The MQM has demanded re-polling be conducted in all of the NA-250 polling stations in Karachi; the PTI has called for re-polling across the entire city, saying Karachi elections were not free and fair. The Election Commission reportedly rejected the MQM’s petition on Friday. PTI and Jamaat-e-Islami protests against the elections continued for the fourth consecutive day on Friday. The Punjab government has declined a request that it dispatch staff to man the new polls in Karachi. [Dawn]
• Other Election Irregularities: The Election Commission of Pakistan has to date received 110 complaints about alleged election-rigging around the country, secretary Ishtiaq Ahmed told reporters on Thursday. Recounts have been ordered in nine constituencies. The ECP has rejected a request from Imran Khan for a recount in the NA-122 Lahore seat, where he lost to the PML-N’s Sardar Ayaz Sadiq. Women’s rights activists have called for new elections in eight Khyber Paktunkhwa districts, citing the disenfranchisement of many women voters; female voter turnout in the Bajaur Agency was less than 3%. The PPP has called for new elections in parts of Balochistan, saying that turnout in Pashtun-dominated districts of the province was too low. Awami National Party leader Asfandyar Wali Khan blamed Taliban attacks for his party’s substantial electoral losses, reiterating charges that “Hakimullah Mehsud was the referee and not [Chief Election Commission] Fakhruddin Ebrahim”. [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn]
• Chinese Premier Visits: Chinese premier Li Keqiang will visit Pakistan next week, his first trip since taking office and the first visit to Pakistan by a senior foreign official since the elections. He will meet with Pres. Zardari, who has invited Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan, among other political leaders, to join a lunch reception on Wednesday.

Pakistan — Economics and Development

• Budget Planning: Party spokesmen say the PML-N is prepared to present a budget for the upcoming fiscal year as soon as the next parliament session is opened. Amid several reshufflings of senior Federal Board of Revenue officials, tax collection has dropped by nearly 20% during the first half of May compared to the same period last year. [ET]
• Iranian Wheat Shipment Cleared: Pakistan’s Commerce Ministry announced Friday that it was clearing 100,000 tons of wheat for export to Iran, a shipment that had been agreed to February in exchange for $53 million in electricity supplies but which was delayed by the elections.

Pakistan — Remainders

• Five Soldiers Killed in Mattani Convoy Attack [Dawn]
• Imran Khan Making ‘Fast Recovery’; Hospital Discharge Likely Next Week [Dawn] [Dawn]
• Zardari Rejects Punjab Governor’s Resignation [Dawn]
• No Plans for Zardari to Resign [ET]
• Only Six Female Candidates Win Directly Elected Seats [Dawn]
• Traditional Political Leaders Suffer Losses in Punjab [Dawn]
• President Approves Sindh High Court and Islamabad High Court Appointments [Dawn]
• Power Subsidy Costs Likely to Rise by Rs 200 Billion [ET]
• 51 Indian Fishermen Released [ET]
• Commentary: The Day After May 11 – “Instead of constantly delegitimising the process, it is necessary to accept the fact that a large part of Pakistan that voted differently from how certain people thought they would, also represents the country.” [Ayesha Siddiqa, Express Tribune]

Afghanistan — Security

• Border Tensions: The WSJ notes increasing Pakistan concerns over a security “vacuum” across the border in Afghanistan as the U.S. and other international forces withdraw over the next year, which Pakistani commanders fear may lead to a resurgence of violence in Swat and other surrounding districts as Pakistani Taliban mlitants take advantage of the situation to stage attacks across the border.

Afghanistan — Politics and Diplomacy

• Karzai to Visit India: Pres. Karzai will travel to India next week for a three-day visit, during which he will reportedly seek additional military assistance and training for Afghan national security forces.

Afghanistan — Economics and Development

• Afghan Officials Dispute SIGAR Tax Audit: Afghan Finance Minister Omar Zakhilwal has disputed a recent Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction that found the Afghan government had improperly assessed more than $921 million in taxes and penalties on contractors working for the U.S., in violation of an agreement between the two governments. Zakhilwal said that SIGAR had failed to “meaningfully consult” with the Afghan government; SIGAR officials say they “stand by this report 100%” and said that the Afghan government had previously refused to provide sought-for documents.

Afghanistan — Remainders

• Afghanistan’s Cycle of Corruption [Daily Beast]
• Abdullah Abdullah Protests Election Law Delay [TOLO]
• Afghan Survivors Tell of March 2012 Kandahar Shooting Rampage [AP]
• Afghan Women’s Network Seeks to Block Amendments to Women’s Rights Law [TOLO]

Pakistan-Afghanistan Update: PML-N Mulls Cabinet Choices; Suicide Car Bombing Kills 15 in Kabul

Sign up to receive this update by email.

Topline

• The Pakistani Taliban have renewed their offer for negotiated peace talks with the new government. A suicide car bombing in Kabul targeted an ISAF military convoy, killing at least fifteen people; Hezb-e-Islami claimed responsibility. Reports emerge of contenders for cabinet positions in the new PML-N national government. The PTI and Jamaat-e-Islami agree on a coalition government in Khyber Paktunkhwa. Citing security concerns, the Sindh government has it cannot conduct re-polling at several Karachi polling stations as ordered by the Election Commission for this weekend. Afghan parliamentarians seek to defend themselves against corruption charges by Finance Minister Zakhilwal earlier this week.

Pakistan — Security

• Taliban Negotiations: In an interview with the Express Tribune, Pakistani Taliban spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan said that the militant group was willing to renew its offer with the new government for a negotiated ceasefire, saying “there could be a possibility of stopping attacks as a goodwill gesture once the new government takes some serious steps.”
• Gilani Kidnapping: Police in Nowshera have reportedly arrested four people in connection with the kidnapping of former Prime Minister Gilani’s son, Ali Haider Gilani, and have reportedly freed an unidentified captive, although the younger Gilani remains missing.

Pakistan — Politics and Diplomacy

• Cabinet Negotiations: The PML-N is continuing to negotiate over its choices for cabinet ministers in the next government; retired Lt. Gen. Abdul Qadir Baloch, a former Balochistan Corps Commander and head of the Sindh Rangers is reportedly under consideration for the position of Interior Minister; Nawaz Sharif himself reportedly plans to hold the traditionally weak defense ministry portfolio. Ishaq Dar and Ahsan Iqbal are reportedly contenders for the foreign ministry; journalist and Punjab caretaker chief minister Najam Sethi is reportedly a candidate for the ambassadorship to the United States. Shahbaz Sharif met with JUI-F leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman on Thursday and invited his party to join the national coalition government.
• Provincial Government Negotiations: Two independent candidates in Balochistan assembly joined the PML-N, giving the party the largest plurality in Balochistan, with ten seats. The PML-N has nominated Sardar Sanaullah Zehri to serve as chief minister; he said he would hold talks with other parties to form a coalition, making the restoration of stability his top priority in the new government. The PTI has confirmed its nomination of Pervaiz Khattak for the position of Khyber Paktunkhwa chief minister after an earlier split within the party. Jamaat-e-Islami and the Quami Watan Party will join in a coalition government in the KP assembly; JI will hold three ministries, finance, education, and ushr and zakat (Islamic religious taxes). The QWP is also expected to get three ministry appointments, although those have not been announced. The JUI-F has dropped its bid to form the government in the province after it failed to win the endorsement of the PML-N and has nominated Akram Khan Durrani to lead its opposition delegation in the provincial assembly. [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn]
• Sindh Government Says it Cannot Conduct Re-polling: The Sindh government has postponed an Election Commission-ordered re-polling at 43 polling stations in the NA-250 Karachi constituency that had been scheduled for May 19, citing security concerns. The MQM has opposed the partial re-polling order, holding public protests outside the Election Commission offices; the Election Commission has agreed to hear arguments on the issue on Friday. The UK ambassador to Pakistan has confirmed that London police have received “thousands of complaints” against MQM leader-in-exile Altaf Hussain from rival PTI supporters, which he said would be “taken seriously”. [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn]
• Election Irregularities: A report by the FAFEN election observer group that 49 polling stations around the country had observed more votes cast than voters registered was inaccurate in at least three cases, officials acknowledged, citing human counting errors. Police in Rahim Yar Khan have filed a charge against FAFEN’s head, Syed Mudassir Rizvi, for “propagating wrong information with the intention to disrupt peace”, saying its reports of 240% voter turnout in the constituency had sparked riots. In a message to supporters on Wednesday, Imran Khan said that “the whole nation wants to move ahead now after the elections and the PTI also wants to move ahead as well, but there are serious apprehensions about elections”; he called on the Election Commission to order vote recounts in at least six constituencies, and to match voter finger-prints on ballot pages to their national ID cards. The PTI and a coalition of mostly smaller religious parties have also demanded re-elections be held in Hyderabad and have endorsed a strike call in Sindh. [ET] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn]
• Group Seeks Musharraf’s Release: A group of supporters plans to hold protests seeking former Pres. Musharraf’s release from house arrest, they tell the Express Tribune. Ijazul Haq, the son of former army leader Zia ul Haq, who won representation to the NA-191 Bahawalnagar seat, tells Dawn he expects Musharraf will be released and will leave the country before the new PML-N government takes office.

Pakistan — Remainders

• Arrest Order for PML-N Candidate Hanif Abbasi After Death of PTI Party Activist on Election Day [Dawn]
• Military Action Likely in 29 Kurram Villages [Dawn]
• Four Killed in Mir Ali Weapons Market Bombing [ET]
• Over 500 Detained in Khyber Paktunkhwa by Intelligence Services, Prisoner Tells Supreme Court [Dawn]
• Pres. Zardari Approves Penal Code Amendments for Provincially Administered Tribal Areas [Dawn]
• Imran Khan to Retain Rawalpindi Seat [Dawn]
• No Plans to Resign, Says Attorney General [Dawn]
• Telecom Industry Hopes for Action on 3G Spectrum Auction Under New Government [ET]
• Central Government and Sindh in Dispute Over Control of Oil and Gas Exploration Licenses [ET]
• Commentary: The Return of Nawaz Sharif: Assessing Pakistan’s 2013 Elections – “The transition from the PPP-led government at the end of its full term in office to a popularly elected successor is an important institutionalization of the democratic process as a means of resolving political disputes, and a hopeful sign for Pakistan’s future political stability.” [Colin Cookman and Andrew Wilder, USIP]
• Commentary: Declan Walsh, Expelled from Pakistan – “Until a few days ago, when the government decided to expel him, Declan Walsh was one of the few foreign reporters working in Pakistan whom everybody seemed to love and respect.” [Basharat Peer, New Yorker]

Afghanistan — Security

• Kabul Suicide Bombing Hits Coalition Convoy: At least 15 people have been killed and dozens injured in a suicide car bombing attack on a NATO military convoy in Kabul on Thursday. Two coalition soldiers and four civilian contractors were killed, as were nine Afghan civilians, including three children. The nationalities of the coalition personnel have not yet been confirmed, although Afghan officials have indicated that all are American. Hezb-e-Islami claimed responsibility for the attack. [BBC] [Guardian] [AJE] [TOLO]

Afghanistan — Politics and Diplomacy

• Corruption Allegations: Six members of parliament accused by Finance Minister Omar Zakhilwal of corruption earlier this week have rejected the charges and called for a special commission to investigate and clear them, and for Zakhilwal’s impeachment if they are found innocent. They also called for Zakhilwal to be barred from leaving the country in the interim. Zahir Qadir, a Nangarhar parliamentarian, defended himself against smuggling charges by saying he already held assets worth approximately $365 million through business ventures before entering parliament and therefore had “no need” to engage in smuggling.

Afghanistan — Remainders

• Afghans Voice Wariness Over New Prime Minister Sharif [WAPO]
• Officials Warily Optimistic About Drop in Insider Attacks [CSM]
• Commentary: Should India Provide Direct Military Aid to Afghanistan? – “Despite little support among India’s policy makers for greater military cooperation with Afghanistan, the lingering ambiguity around Afghanistan’s future after 2014 provides a good opportunity for New Delhi to step up its efforts to be a force for stability in the country.” [Javid Ahmad, NYT]
• Commentary: What Have We Learned About Stabilization in Afghanistan? Not Much – “The lack of interest in documenting the impact of the stabilization efforts – both what works and what doesn’t – does not bode well for the rest of the world.” [Ashley Jackson, AfPak Channel]
• Commentary: On the Knife’s Edge: The Looming Parliamentary Debate About the Elimination of Violence Against Women Law – “A debate that undermines – or abolishes – the law, would most likely also have a negative effect on women’s rights more widely.” [Christine Roehrs and Sari Kouvo, AAN]

Pakistan-Afghanistan Update: Nawaz Visits Imran Khan; SIGAR Finds Nearly $1B in Afghan Govt Taxes on US Contractors Despite Agreements

Sign up to receive this update by email.

Topline

• Results in Karachi and plans for re-polling continue to be contested as the Election Commission sets this Sunday as the day for a new vote in the NA-250 constituency. Nawaz Sharif visits Imran Khan at his Lahore hospital and afterwards claims to have “made peace”; Nawaz downplayed a JUI-F effort to challenge the PTI for the leadership of Khyber Paktunkhwa, saying that the PML-N “respects the PTI’s mandate” there. The PTI has reportedly reached an agreement on a coalition but has yet to decide on its own nominee for Khyber Paktunkhwa chief minister. American special forces operations in Afghanistan are on the rise, even as conventional forces prepare to withdraw. A new SIGAR audit found that near $1 billion in taxes were inappropriately levied on American contractors operating in Afghanistan by the Afghan government.

Pakistan — Politics and Diplomacy

• Voting Irregularities: The Election Commission has fixed the date for a new vote at 43 polling stations in Karachi’s NA-250 constituency, to take place this Sunday from 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM. Election Commission have warned that presiding officers at the polling stations will be held accountable “if they are found involved in any illegal practice”. The MQM has rejected partial re-polling in the constituency and called instead for a completely new vote across the constituency, accusing the Election Commission of “marginalizing the MQM’s mandate”. The MQM held a protest sit-in in from the commission’s Karachi offices on Tuesday. The PTI and Jamaat-e-Islami continued public protests against the results in Karachi for the third day on Tuesday evening, although participation appears to be waning. The PML-F has called for a strike across Sindh against vote-rigging in the province, and has alleged that delays in announcing official results have led to the deliberate manipulation of final vote tallies. At least one MQM and one JI activist were killed along with five others in separate incidents of Karachi violence on Tuesday. Rival supporters of the MQM and PPP have also clashed violently in Nawabshah on Tuesday; at least four party activists have been killed since election day. On Wednesday, Karachi police announced the arrest of seven men allegedly involved in vote-rigging in polling stations in the area; no further information has been reported. The PTI has identified 15 National Assembly and five provincial assembly seats in Punjab whose results it has challenged on the basis of “significant rigging instances”; a PTI challenge against the results in the NA-125 seat was rejected by the local returning officer on Tuesday.
• Sharif Visits Imran Khan, Prepares to Form Government: With only around a dozen national assembly seat results yet to be confirmed, the PML-N appears to have won a solid plurality of 123 seats; at current count, the PPP won 37 and the PTI 27. At least a dozen independent candidates have reportedly joined the PML-N since the election, and more are expected to do so. The PML-N held talks on Tuesday with the PML-F, with whom it formed an alliance in Sindh; the party, which only won four seats, is expected to be invited to join the coalition in the national assembly. Abdul Qadir Baloch and Mehmood Khan Achakzai, both senior politicians from Balochistan, are reportedly top choices for the position of National Assembly Speaker; Achakzai, whose Paktunkhwa Milli Awami Party won nine seats in the Balochistan assembly, equal to the PML-N, could reportedly be chosen on condition that a PML-N nominee be allowed to take the Balochistan chief minister position. On Tuesday, Nawaz Sharif visited Imran Khan at the Lahore hospital where he is recovering from a fall during campaigning; Sharif said afterward that “we have made peace” and that “we will play a friendly match, once he recovers”. PTI leaders have reportedly decided that Khan, who won from three different seats, will choose to serve from Rawalpindi, given party concerns that it would otherwise lose the seat to the PML-N in a special election. [NYT] [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET]
• PTI to Lead Khyber Paktunkhwa: The PTI has reportedly reached an agreement with the Jamaat-e-Islami and Quami Watan Party on a coalition to lead the Khyber Paktunkhwa provincial government. The PTI remains divided on who to nominate for the chief minister’s position, however; supporters of Asad Qaisar, the party provincial president, claim that he has the endorsement of Imran Khan for the position against rival Pervaiz Khattak. 59 of the 124-member KP assembly are first-time legislators, and only three of the PTI’s delegation have previously served in government, of which Khattak is one. JUI-F leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who had sought to assembly a rival coalition to the PTI’s, has accused the PTI of “massive rigging” in Peshawar, Mardan, Kohat, and FATA, and has threatened to protest if re-elections are not held; after Nawaz Sharif’s meeting with Khan on Tuesday, he said that the PML-N “respects PTI’s mandate” in Khyber Paktunkhwa. [ET]
• Foreign Relations: Pres. Obama spoke with Nawaz Sharif by phone on Tuesday to congratulate him on his electoral victory, White House officials said. A State Department spokesman indicated that Sec. Kerry hopes to visit Pakistan as soon as Sharif’s government is in place. The U.S. and Saudi ambassadors also met with Sharif on Tuesday, and he received additional congratulatory phone calls from Indian Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. [WSJ]

Pakistan — Remainders

• 64 People Reportedly Killed Fleeing Military Operations in Kurram Agency [ET]
• Supreme Court Holds Hearing on Seven Adiyala Prisoners [Dawn] [ET] [ET]
• PPP Agrees to Govern in Coalition with MQM in Sindh [Dawn] [ET]
• London Police Investigating Complaints Against Altaf Hussain [Dawn]
• Poor Electoral Showing for Sectarian Parties in Karachi [Dawn]
• Caretaker Government Removes Heads of Natural Gas and Mineral Development Public Companies [Dawn] [PPI]
• FBR Struggling to Meet Revised Tax Target Before End of Fiscal Year [Dawn]
• Pakistan Textile Manufacturers Hope for Boost as Bangladesh Faces Investor Scrutiny [ET]
• Musharraf House Arrest Extended for Two Weeks [ET]
• Report: Understanding Pakistan’s Water-Security Nexus – “The current policy approach is oriented in supply-side interventions, and the overall ethos favors engineering megaprojects, a bias reflected in policy and in donor appeals. This approach only veils the problem of water use inefficiencies.” [Daanish Mustafa, Majed Akhter, and Natalie Nasralla, USIP]

Afghanistan — Security

• Special Forces Operations: The NYT reports on the rise of U.S. special forces activity in Afghanistan, as conventional forces draw down and Afghan army and police forces take the lead. Around sixty Special Operations teams are currently working in the country with local police militia units, and another fifty are assigned to embed with Afghan commando, special police, and quick reaction units. Drone, helicopter, and air operations have also increased, to around 6,000 sorties a month. Command over American and allied special forces units has been consolidated under the Special Operations Joint Task Force-Afghanistan headed by Maj. Gen. Tony Thomas; around 13,700 Special Operations personnel are currently deployed in all, around 10,000 of whom are American.
• Kandahar Bombing: At least three American soldiers were killed when their convoy was hit by a roadside bombing in Kandahar’s Zhari district on Tuesday. [BBC] [AP]

Afghanistan — Politics and Diplomacy

• Corruption Allegations: Following testimony before parliament by Finance Minister Omar Zakhilwal accusing several parliamentarians of smuggling and illegal activities, the Afghan Attorney General’s office has asked him to substantiate the allegations in order for it to carry out investigations.

Afghanistan — Remainders

• Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia Retiring [Foreign Policy]
• Ershad Ahmadi Appointed Deputy Afghan Foreign Minister [Pajhwok]
• Schoolgirl ‘Poisoning’ Case Reported in Mazar-e-Sharif [TOLO]
• Report: Afghan Government Has Levied Nearly a Billion Dollars in Business Taxes on Contractors Supporting US Government Efforts in Afghanistan – “Since 2008, the Afghan government has levied [$921 Million in] taxes and tax-related penalties on contractors supporting U.S. government contracts in Afghanistan that should be exempt from such taxes under negotiated agreements.” [SIGAR (pdf)] [Guardian]
• Commentary: Trouble at the Goshta Gate: New Tenions and Old Wounds Along the Durand Line – “Among Afghans, the issue of the Durand Line – and Pakistan’s role as the country’s arch-enemy – is the big unifier.” [Thomas Ruttig, AAN]
• Commentary: When a Bomb Goes Off in Afghanistan – “Afghanistan, already slipping off the American front page, will show up as a three-inch story in the international section when an American special forces soldier dies.” [Heidi Vogt, Daily Beast]

Pakistan-Afghanistan Update: Pakistan Government Formation Talks Continue; Dunford Denies ISAF Responsibility for April Kunar Civilian Deaths

Sign up to receive this update by email.

Topline

• The PML-N continues negotiations over the formation of a government at the national level, while the PTI has agreed to a coalition with Jamaat-e-Islami in Khyber-Paktunkhwa and the PPP to renewing its coalition with the MQM in Sindh. Pakistan’s ambassador to the U.S. has resigned following the vote, as have the PPP’s Punjab and Khyber-Paktunkhwa provincial party presidents and former prime minister and party vice chairman Yusuf Raza Gilani. PTI protests against voting irregularities continue in Karachi and other parts of the country; the FAFEN observer group reports 49 polling stations showed more votes recorded than registered voters in the area. ISAF commander Gen. Dunford “categorically denies” that American airstrikes were responsible for the deaths of 17 Afghan civilians in a clash between Taliban fighters and a joint CIA-Afghan team in Kunar province in early April; eyewitness accounts appear to confirm that no direct bombing damage occurred. India-Pakistan trade jumped 21% last year, and business leaders in India are optimistic that Nawaz Sharif’s victory will leader to greater economic cooperation in the coming years. Afghanistan’s finance minister has denounced six parliamentarians for corruption and smuggling, winning a vote of confidence against impeachment charges. Voter registration materials have begun to be distributed ahead of the 2014 Afghan presidential vote.

Pakistan — Politics and Diplomacy

• Voting Irregularities: The EU’s election observation mission released its interim report on Monday, concluding that voting had been “satisfactory” in 90% of polling stations but reporting “serious irregularities” in the remainder, mostly in Sindh. The FAFEN domestic observer group reports that at least 49 polling stations around the country recorded more votes than registered voters and recommended that those results be discarded. The Election Commission is still collecting information on rigging allegations. PTI protests continued in Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, and Mardan. The Jamaat-e-Islami and PML-F joined the PTI in protests in Sindh, calling for re-elections in Karachi and Hyderabad; JI leaders said they would file a challenge in the Supreme Court against the Karachi results. The Sindh High Court has agreed to hear a petition seeking to block re-polling in the city. The protests in Karachi continued despite the imposition of the Section 144 public order law that bars public gatherings. The MQM for its part has called for re-polling in the entire NA-250 constituency, not just 43 polling stations as ordered by the Election Commission. Speaking to reporters on Monday, Nawaz Sharif said that Imran Khan should “show the sportman’s spirit” and drop his challenges to the election results, saying the PTI should “respect our mandate”. [WSJ] [Dawn] [ET] [Dawn] [ET]
• Government Formation: The caretaker government will transfer power to the next government by June 2, its spokesman confirmed Monday. A PML-N committee led by former opposition leader Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan is preparing a list of national assembly committee chair nominees, while other party leaders are preparing for negotiations with independent candidates to pad out the party’s coalition. In the Punjab assembly, at least 34 independent candidates have announced their intentions to join the PML-N. Dawn suggests that the PML-N is considering offering Imran Khan the position of head the Public Accounts oversight committee. [ET]
• Provincial Government Negotiations: The PTI has nominated Pervaiz Khattak to serve as chief minister in Khyber Paktunkhwa, where it won a plurality of seats but faces a challenge from the JUI-F over the formation of government, and tensions between rival PTI leaders. The PTI has nominated Pervaiz Khattk as chief minister and has reached an agreement with the Jamaat-e-Islami on a coalition; negotiations are ongoing with the Quami Watan Party led by Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao. In Balochistan, a coalition of the Paktunkhwa Milli Awami Party, the PML-N, and the National Party is expected to form the government. After a meeting on Monday, Pres. Zardari has directed the PPP to join in coalition with the MQM in Sindh again. [Dawn]
• PPP and ANP Accept Vote: Pres. Zardari issued a statement on Monday congratulating the nation on successful elections, and reportedly spoke with Nawaz Sharif by phone. The PPP’s party president, Makhdoom Amin Fahim, said that the PPP “accepts the verdict of the people” despite over the fairness of the vote and would sit in opposition in the next parliament. The ANP, which lost almost all its seats at the national level and in Khyber Paktunkhwa, also announced its acceptance of the election outcome, “in spite of serious reservations regarding pre-poll rigging”. PML-N leader Rana Sanaullah tells Dawn that the party will make no efforts to cut short Zardari’s tenure in office, which expires this fall in the event his is not re-elected. Former Prime Minister Gilani held a press conference on Monday and took responsibility for the party’s losses, resigning from his position as party vice chairman. Pakistani ambassador to the United States Sherry Rehman, a former PPP representative, has also formally submitted her resignation. The PPP’s Khyber Paktunkhwa and Punjab provincial presidents have also resigned, as has senator Aitzaz Ahsan.
• Karachi Tensions: Preliminary vote counts indicate that the PTI made a strong second-place showing in several Karachi constituencies, even in traditional strongholds for the MQM and PPP. MQM leader-in-exile Altaf Hussain walked back comments the day prior in which he had lashed out at PTI protestors and reportedly threatened to “separate Karachi from Pakistan” if the MQM’s “mandate” was not respected; Hussain said the comments being attributed to him were “baseless allegations”. MQM officials on Tuesday announced that Hussain was ill and would be undergoing rest for a few days this week. [Dawn] [ET]

Pakistan — Economics and Development

• India Trade: Nawaz Sharif’s promises to improve relations with neighboring India are being met with “measured optimism” there, the NYT reports; Indian business leaders also express optimism about greater trade ties in interviews with the Express Tribune. Bilateral trade between India and Pakistan saw a marked jump in the past year, increasing 21% to $2.4 billion according to the Indian High Commission in Islamabad. Pakistan trade to India grew 28%, while Indian trade to Pakistan grew 19%.
• Economic Indicators: Merchandise exports fell 4% in April from the year prior; overall, however, exports rose 4.23% during the July-April 2012-2013 period, and imports declined 1.02%, reducing the trade deficit by 6.75% for the first ten months of the fiscal year. $11.5 billion in remittances were sent to Pakistan during the first ten months of the fiscal year, a 6.3% increase and nearly equivalent to the country’s total foreign currency reserves.

Pakistan — Remainders

• Former Prime Minister Ashraf Blocked from International Travel, Summoned in Rental Power Scam [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET]
• Imran Khan Considering Serving from Rawalpindi Seat [ET]
• Four Killed in PPP-MQM Clash in Nawabshah [Dawn]
• Government Finalizing Financing Plan for Diamer Bhasha Dam [ET]
• Commentary: Sharif Versus Army, Round 3 – “The success — and perhaps length — of Mr. Sharif’s tenure will be determined by how he negotiates the relationship with Pakistan’s unelected power players. They include the United States, an ally with whom he has a long and sometimes unhappy history and that has worried about his vigor in fighting Islamist militants. There is a newly crusading judiciary to gauge. And above all loom the generals, and his tense history with them.” [Declan Walsh, NYT]
• Commentary: Some Thoughts and Questions on the Elections – “It’s one thing to rig elections in which Very Unimportant People are voting, it’s another thing entirely to do so in the richest, best connected, and most-anti MQM locale in the city.” [Ahsan Butt, Five Rupees]
• Commentary: How Nawaz Sharif Beat Imran Khan and What Happens Next – “Pakistan as a federation has gone through its first rite of passage: handover of power from one elected civilian setup to another. It took Pakistan 67 years to get here. Let us not forget that the reasons that caused this delay haven’t disappeared.” [Mohammad Hanif, Guardian]
• Commentary: Nawaz Sharif Must Mend Pakistan’s Three Fault Lines – “Taken together, strengthening the democratic project, nudging the civil-military imbalance in the right direction and seeking to reset ties with India would amount to a fundamental reorientation of the Pakistani state.” [Cyril Almeida, Guardian]
• Commentary: Democracy Wins, Federation Loses – “Although the PML won enough seats to be able to form the government without having to bargain too much with too many factions, its success comes entirely through the support of one ethnic group — the Punjabis.” [Farahnaz Ispahani, The Hindu]

Afghanistan — Security

• Dunford Denies Involvement in Kunar Civilian Casualty Incident: In a NYT interview, ISAF commander Gen. Joseph Dunford categorically denies that NATO or American airstrikes were responsible for the deaths of at least 17 women and children in Kunar province on the night of April 5 and 6^th, as maintained by Afghan investigators backed by Pres. Karzai. Afghan officials say the CIA and a local Afghan militia unit had clashed with Taliban forces and had called in airstrikes for support, resulting in the deaths. Village eyewitnesses suggest that no significant damaging from the bombing was found, and the bodies of those killed showed no visible signs of blood or shrapnel. American officials insist that all civilians present were alive when their forces left the area; medical consultants suggest that the use of airburst munitions to disperse Taliban forces could potentially have resulted in internal bleeding injuries.
• Attacks: Three soldiers from the republic of Georgia were killed in a truck bombing at a NATO base in Helmand province’s Musa Qala district on Monday, NATO spokesmen confirmed. In total, 22 Georgian soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan since 2009; it provides the largest non-NATO troop contingent in Afghanistan, at around 1,570 soldiers. In Helmand’s Garmsir district, at least three people were killed and seven wounded when a bomb planted on a motorcycle detonated at a local market on Tuesday. In Kapisa province, a U.S. Special Forces convoy returning from a mine-clearing mission was targeted in a suicide car bombing; no casualties were reported, however. [BBC] [AJE]

Afghanistan — Politics and Diplomacy

• Finance Minister Accuses MPs of Corruption: Finance Minister Zakhilwal appeared before parliament on Monday and named six MPs – including among others Nangarhar politician Haji Mohammad Zaher Qadir, a rival to governor Gul Agha Serzai – who he said had been involved in smuggling and other illegal activities. Zakhilwal, who had been summoned on possible impeachment charges, afterwards won a vote of confidence by parliament; he tells the WSJ he hopes his statements “will create an anticorruption movement”. [BBC]
• IEC Concerned Over Election Preparations: Voter registration materials for the upcoming 2014 presidential elections have begun to be distributed around the country this week; Independent Election Commission officials have expressed concern over Afghan security forces ability to provide security for the process, which involves the distribution of around 4 million voter ID cards.

Afghanistan — Remainders

• Taliban Keep up Campaign to Win Public Support [NYT]
• British Forces Facing Longer Tours of Duty in Afghanistan [Guardian]
• Border Police Commanders Repeat Request for Heavy Arms [TOLO]
• Taliban Shut 40 Schools in Zabul Province [TOLO]

Pakistan-Afghanistan Update: Sharif Prepares to Form Government; Afghanistan and US Hold Security Agreement Talks

Sign up to receive this update by email.

Topline

• Nawaz Sharif begins talks to form a national government as final results are still awaited. The Election Commission of Pakistan has established tribunals to review allegations of rigging; although Imran Khan has signaled his intention to move forward in opposition, PTI supporters continue to protest the results in Lahore and Karachi. The PML-N and JUI-F may form a coalition to edge the PTI out of control of the Khyber Paktunkhwa assembly, the only province where it managed to secure a plurality of seats. U.S. and Afghan officials held talks on Saturday on the post-2014 bilateral security agreement. Afghan officials have protested the deaths of at least nine Afghan migrants in a clash with Iranian border forces. Afghan officials have identified a man they say is an Afghan-American who led a militia unit in Wardak province accused of murder and torture; U.S. officials maintain they had no connection to his activities and deny he is an American citizen. A suicide car bomb targeting the head of the Balochistan provincial police in Quetta has killed at least eight and wounded nearly a hundred.

Pakistan — Security

• Suicide Bombing Targets Balochistan Police Chief: A large suicide car bombing targeted the home of the Inspector General of the Balochistan police, Mushtaq Sukhera in Quetta on Sunday evening. At least eight people, including one child, have been killed and as many as 97 are now reported wounded. Sukhera, who had just arrived at his residence, was unhurt. No claim of responsibility has yet been reported. [ET]

Pakistan — Politics and Diplomacy

• Sharif in Talks to Form Government: With most preliminary returns confirming a substantial plurality for the PML-N in the national assembly, party leader Nawaz Sharif has begun talks to form the next government; several independent candidates have already signaled their intention to join the party. The Express Tribune indicates that Sharif will bring the PML-F, with whom he campaigned together in Sindh, into the national government as well. The party is reportedly considering re-nominating Shahbaz Sharif as Punjab Chief Minister, although he contested on a national assembly constituency in the polls. PML-N spokesmen say they want the inaugural session of parliament to be opened soon to allow for planning for the next budget; constitutionally, it must begin no later than June 1. PML-N senator Ishaq Dar will be tapped to serve as finance minister, spokesmen confirm. [WAPO] [TIME] [BBC] [AJE] [AP]
• Khan Plans for Opposition: In a message from his hospital bed on Sunday, Imran Khan “congratulated the entire nation for taking part in such a massive democratic process” and praised his supporters. The PML-Q has reportedly endorsed the PTI over the PPP for the position of opposition leader in parliament; the latter may have the support of the MQM for the position. PPP leaders have yet to issue a formal statement on the election results and are reportedly meeting on Monday to plan their response. PTI supporters carried out street protests against alleged vote-rigging in Lahore and Karachi on Sunday which have continued on Monday. In his first public address following the elections, MQM leader-in-exile Altaf Hussain denounced PTI allegations against his party of rigging or voter intimidation in Karachi, warning that “if you don’t stop hatred towards Karachi and MQM, then this fire will spread all over the country”. [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET]
• Election Irregularities: The Election Commission of Pakistan met on Monday to review allegations of vote-rigging in Karachi and other parts of the country. Fourteen special election tribunals have been established to review the charges. The domestic observer group FAFEN issued a statement on Sunday concluding that polls were “relatively fair” despite violence and reports by its observers of irregularities at 693 out of 3,500 polling stations. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has issued a more critical assessment, saying that the vote was “poorly managed”. Re-polling will take place at 43 polling stations in Karachi’s NA-250 constituency within ten days, officials have announced, as will elections for the NA-38 Kurram Agency constituency, which had been postponed. Other special elections to replace candidates who won on multiple seats are likely to be held in June. [NYT] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET] [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET]
• Provincial Results: Although final results are still awaited, a Dawn infographic offers a projected breakdown of seats in the national and provincial assemblies. The PML-N has strengthened its hold on the Punjab assembly, securing a two-thirds majority there, with the PTI forming a small opposition. Former Punjab governor Latif Khosa of the PPP charged that results in the province were rigged but said the party had yet to decide on a response. The current Punjab governor, Makhdoom Ahmed Mahmood, has announced his resignation. In Sindh, the PPP retained control of the provincial assembly despite efforts by the PML-F and a coalition of smaller opposition parties to challenge its hold on rural constituencies in the province. Local PPP leaders are said to be opposed to returning to coalition with the MQM, with whom it clashed over local government structures for Karachi during much of the previous government’s tenure. In his remarks to supporters on Sunday Imran Khan said that the PTI would turn Khyber-Paktunkhwa, where it secured around half of the directly-elected seats, into a “model government”. However, PML-N and JUI-F leaders are reportedly in discussions over a possible coalition that might edge the PTI out for control of the provincial assembly. [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET]
• Foreign Relations: Pres. Obama issued a statement on Sunday congratulating Pakistan on its elections, saying the U.S. “looks forward to continuing our cooperation with the Pakistani government that emerges from this election as equal partners in supporting a more stable, secure, and prosperous future for the people of Pakistan.” Anonymous Nawaz Sharif aides tell the Express Tribune that the new government will review all “covert and overt” agreements with the United States, but said that the party was not seeking a “divorce”. Indian Prime Minister Singh also congratulated Sharif on his victory and invited him to visit India “at a mutually convenient time”. Sharif has in turn invited Singh to attend his oath of office ceremony. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is scheduled to travel to Pakistan on May 22 to meet the new national leadership. [WSJ] [Guardian]

Pakistan — Remainders

• Poor Showing for PPP Punjab Political Dynasties [Dawn]
• Despite Boycott, Musharraf Party Candidates Win Two Seats in Chitral [ET]
• Outgoing Government Secured Only $1.8 Billion in Foreign Funding During First Nine Months of Fiscal Year [ET]
• Indian Firm in Talks Over Thar Coal Investment [Dawn]
• Report: Preliminary Statement by National Democratic Institute Observation Mission – “Voters’ courage and resolve in casting their ballots despite the mounting violence was a victory for democracy and the people of Pakistan.” [NDI (pdf)]

Afghanistan — Security

• Secrurity Partnership Talks: U.S. and Afghan officials met on Saturday for the second round of formal negotiations on a bilateral security agreement governing U.S. support for Afghanistan after 2014 and the terms under which military forces will remain in the country past that point. There are few specific details of the talks, although the amount of U.S. support for Afghanistan’s military and legal immunity for U.S. forces remaining in the country remain key points of contention. Speaking before the session, lead U.S. negotiator Deputy Secretary of State William Burns said that U.S. would continue it support but also stressed expectations that Afghanistan would take steps to ensure “transparent, credible and inclusive” presidential elections next year. Talks will resume again in Washington in October. [TOLO]
• Border Tensions: Afghan officials accuse Iranian border forces of opening fire on a group of Afghan migrants illegally crossing the border into Iran from Farah province on Saturday, killing at least nine people. The Iranian ambassador was summoned for a formal protest on Sunday. On the eastern border, National Security Advisor Rangin Dadfar Spanta visited the Nangahar district of Goshta on Saturday, the site of recent border clashes with Pakistan, and stressed the need for more heavy military equipment for Afghan border forces. Additional Afghan National Army personnel have been deployed to the area. The governor of Kunar accused Pakistan of indiscriminate cross-border artillery fire on Sunday, reporting the injury of two children and destruction of several houses. The Taliban issued a statement on Monday condemning both the Iranian and Pakistani border clashes and vowing to “defend our beloved homeland and its people as we did in the past”. [BBC] [TOLO]
• Afghans Seek Arrest of Man Linked to Wardak Abuses: Afghan officials investigating reports of abduction and abuse in the Nerkh district of Wardak are seeking the arrest on murder and torture charges of Zakaria Kandahari, who they say is an American-born Afghan and a member of a U.S. Special Forces-backed militia unit. American officials have acknowledged that Kandahari served as an interpreter for a special forces unit that was recently withdrawn from the district after public intervention by Pres. Karzai; they deny any connection with his alleged abuses, however, and deny that he is an American citizen.
• Four Turkish Hostages Freed: Four Turkish construction workers who were detained by the Taliban following a civilian helicopter crash in Logar province last month have been freed, Turkish Prime Minister Edrogan announced Sunday, without elaborating on the details of their release. Four more Turkish nationals and two pilots, one Russian and one Kyrgyz, as well as an Afghan interpreter, are believed to remain in captivity.

Afghanistan — Remainders

• Deputy Chief of Nuristan Intelligence Killed in Bombing at Home [TOLO]
• Ten Civilians Killed in Kandahar Bombing [BBC]
• Parliamentarians Push for Hearing on Finance Minister’s Impeachment [TOLO]
• Poppy Cultivation Rises in Badakshan [TOLO]

Pakistan-Afghanistan Update: Early Returns Suggest PML-N Victory in Pakistan Elections

Sign up to receive this update by email.

Note: Due to the high volume of Pakistan election-related coverage, daily news updates will continue through the weekend. A roundup of the weekend’s Afghanistan news will resume as usual on Monday.

Topline

• Vote counting continues after yesterday’s elections in Pakistan. Nationwide turnout may exceed 60%, despite threats of violence, but participation in Balochistan was low. Although final results have yet to be announced in most cases, the PML-N appears to have won a substantial plurality in the national assembly. The PTI appears set to lead the next provincial government in Khyber Paktunkhwa, and the PPP, while suffering widespread losses in Punjab, has retained control of the assembly in Sindh. Voting irregularities and allegations of rigging have led the Election Commission to order-repolling at 43 polling stations in Karachi.

Security

• Election-Day Violence: Dawn tallies at least 38 deaths and 150 or more injuries in attacks around the country on election day, although as reported yesterday, few of the attacks appear to have been carried out by the Pakistani Taliban. Beyond a bombing earlier in the morning targeting an ANP candidate, another suicide bombing was reported in Karachi later in the day, killing two paramilitary Rangers in the Manghopir neighborhood. In Balochistan’s Naseerabad district, a bombing attack on an independent candidate killed at least ten people, and a string of three bombings in Peshawar temporarily halted polling at several stations, killing one boy and wounding over twenty people. Separately, police detained a man found to be wearing a fake uniform seeking access to Imran Khan’s hospital room in Lahore; no further details of the incident have been reported. [ET] [Dawn] [ET]

Election Day Results

• High Turnout Reported in Most Areas: Speaking at a late-evening press conference as vote counting continued, Chief Election Commissioner Fakhruddin Ibrahim expressed general satisfaction with the voting process and said that nationwide turnout was likely 60% or more. Turnout rates as high as 80% were reported in some parts of Lahore, a record-breaking level of participation. Higher-than-expected participation by women voters in Peshawar and parts of Khyber Paktunkhwa were also reported, despite threats of violence and warnings from the Taliban not to participate in the process. Much lower levels of voting are reported in Balochistan, however, and is estimated at between 30-40% of registered voters. Turnout without Balochistan was reportedly higher in Pashtun areas than in Baloch-dominated areas, where militant separatist groups continued to call for boycotts of the elections despite the participation of several Baloch nationalist parties. The secretary general of the Balochistan National Party-Awami said that his party would reject the results in Balochistan, saying that it was “a joke and not an election”. [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET]
• PML-N Expected to Lead New Government: Vote counting remains underway and most contest have yet to receive officially certified results; the Election Commission website has details on a handful of races. Most projections of early returns, however, indicate that Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N party will command a substantial plurality at the national level as well as retaining control of Punjab; Sharif declared victory at a rally Saturday night. Although the PML-N appears to be short of an absolute majority, its appears to have secured a larger margin of victory than the outgoing government, and will likely be able to form a coalition with the support of independents or one of the smaller parties, leaving both the PTI and PPP in opposition. In an election-night interview with the WSJ, Sharif said the he wanted to “strengthen the relationship” with the U.S., and expressing optimism that “concerns” about drone strikes could be resolved. Sharif also signaled interest in improved relations with both India and Afghanistan. Prime Minister Singh and Pres. Karzai have both called Sharif on Sunday, congratulating him on his win. [NYT] [AJE] [Guardian]
• PTI and PPP Shut Out of Punjab, Secure Provincial Governments: The PTI appears to have largely come in at second place in most contests in Punjab, but is likely to gain a plurality and lead the provincial government in Khyber Paktunkhwa province, where the outgoing Awami National Party suffered major losses. Speaking to AFP, a spokesman for the Pakistani Taliban, which carried out multiple attacks on the ANP during its tenure but with whom the PTI has endorsed negotiations, said that it would “wait till political parties form their government in centre and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa” before determining its policies. PTI leaders again ruled out the possibility of forming any coalition with either the PPP or PML-N, and said that they would play an “active role” in the opposition. The incumbent PPP also suffered major losses across Punjab, with many former ministers, including former Prime Minister Ashraf, losing seats there; the party retains a plurality in the Senate, however, and also appears to have secured an absolute majority in the Sindh assembly. [Dawn] [ET] [Dawn]
• Re-Polling Ordered Over Karachi Irregularities: Although there were allegations of election interference and poor coordination at polling stations around the country, the most widely-reported complaints emerged from Karachi’s NA-250 constituency, located in a wealthy area of the city where the PTI had sought to challenge the MQM. Rivals of the MQM accuse it of obstructing the vote, expelling polling agents from stations, and rigging the results; several smaller religious parties, including the Jamaat-e-Islami, have announced a boycott of the results in Karachi and Hyderabad and plan a strike action on Monday. Election Commission officials acknowledged the irregularities, without attributing them to the MQM, and have ordered re-polling to take place at 43 out of 180 polling stations in the constituency; a date for that exercise has not been announced. [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET] [Dawn]
• Punjab Results: Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi of the PML-Q secured reelection from Gujrat. Former PML-N parliamentary opposition leader Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan also won reelection in Rawalpindi. PPP Punjab party chairman Manzoor Wattoo lost in Okara. PTI Vice President and former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Quereshi appears to have lost his home constituency of Multan. Maulana Ahmad Ludhianvi, leader of the Sunni sectarian group Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat, has likely lost the Jhang national assembly seat he was contesting against the PML-N’s Sheikh Muhammad Akram. Tahrir-ul-Qadri did not appear in person at a small protest held against the election in Lahore, instead speaking to supporters by video. [ET] [ET]

Pakistan-Afghanistan Update: Pakistan Goes to the Polls

Sign up to receive this update by email.

Note: Due to the high volume of Pakistan election-related coverage, daily news updates will continue through the weekend. A roundup of the weekend’s Afghanistan news will resume as usual on Monday.Topline

• Voting in Pakistan is still ongoing as of this writing, although polls are expected to close soon in most parts of the country. Although there are several reported incidents of clashes between rival parties and at least one candidate death, there are no reported incidents of large-scale militant-instigated violence at this time. Preliminary figures suggest turnout levels are likely to exceed those of the 2008 elections. Currently, the highest volume of reported vote-rigging complaints are coming from Karachi, where the Jamaat-e-Islami and MQM-Haqiqi have accused the MQM of intimidating voters and have announced their boycott of the results. Reporting from Khyber-Paktunkhwa and Balochistan is minimal. The NYT’s Pakistan bureau chief was ordered to leave the country on Thursday evening without explanation, although a broader crackdown on foreign media is not currently in evidence.

Security and Violence

• Security Preparations: At a cabinet briefing on May 4, intelligence officials warned the caretaker government of threats to political parties, foreign election observers, and polling center staff. Approximately 75,000 soldiers have been detailed around the country to provide election security, around 5,000 of which are reported to have been posted inside the “most sensitive”-designated polling stations. Deployments in Karachi were further boosted by around 2,000 soldiers early Saturday morning. Borders with India and Afghanistan were officially sealed before the start of polling and are planned to remain closed for at least three days. An order to suspend cell phone service in Sindh was withdrawn before the vote took place. The Pakistani Taliban have previously issued repeated threats to carry out election-day attacks, but as of this writing no large-scale incidents have been reported.
• Gilani Kidnapping: No leads have yet been reported in the kidnapping of Ali Haider Gilani, the youngest son of former Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, although the Express Tribune reports at least a dozen Lashkar-e-Jhangvi members have been detained. Speaking to the press on Friday, Gilani said “some elements don’t want democracy in Pakistan and they are interested in derailing the system”. Ali Musa Gilani, an older brother, suggested that the kidnapping was a “planned conspiracy”, and criticized the Election Commission’s failure to halt polling in the PP-200 provincial assembly seat where Ali Haider had been a candidate. [ET] [ET]

Polling Opens

• Pakistan Votes: Voting in Pakistan opened around 8:00 AM local time and is ongoing as of this update. The NYT, WSJ, and Express Tribune have the best opening overviews of the contest. Polls were scheduled to close at 5:00 PM (8:00 AM EST), but have been extended by an hour. Constitutionally, results must be finalized within two weeks and the first session of the new parliament held within three weeks of polling; Dawn explores some of the options for coalition formation for the PPP. [WAPO] [AP] [AFP] [AJE] [Guardian] [Dawn]
• Voter Participation: Early reports suggest higher-than-usual turnout despite the threat of violence, and most projections still suggest a closely-divided outcome at the national level. There are around 86 million registered voters, 34% of whom are under the age of 31. As of midday the Election Commission reported around 30% turnout, and projected that could rise to as much as 60% by the end of polling. National turnout in the 2008 elections was reported at 44%; the PTI in particular has staked its campaign on mobilizing new voters. In South Waziristan, the local shura of tribal leaders and representatives from the Mullah Nazir group has agreed to allow women to participate in the vote; in Upper Dir, local elders have barred women from doing so. [WAPO] [ET]
• Election Campaigning: The WSJ looks at the role of political dynasties in Pakistani politics, as well as the tradition of party-switching by local “electables”. Dawn notes the rising Pashtun population in Karachi and its impact on the city’s politics. The Express Tribune also notes Peshawar’s rising population. [Dawn] [ET] [WSJ] [Guardian]
• NYT Bureau Chief Expelled: Declan Walsh, a long-serving foreign correspondent in Pakistan currently reporting for the NYT, was abruptly ordered to leave the country by the Pakistani interior ministry. The paper, and the international Committee to Protect Journalists, has strongly protested the move; in a two-sentence letter delivered to Walsh by police at his home on Thursday evening, he was informed without further elaboration that “your visa is hereby canceled in view of your undesirable activities”. [WSJ] [Guardian] [NYT Editorial Statement]

Punjab Election Reports

• Withdrawals, Disqualifications, and Suspensions: Former PPP information minister Firdous Ashiq Awan has withdrawn her candidacy in the Sialkot NA-110 seat in favor of Usman Darr, a PTI candidate; she remains a constestant in the neighboring NA-111 constituency. Polling in the PP-254 constituency has been postponed followng the death by heart attack of a candidate for A.Q. Khan’s Tehreek Tahaffuz Pakistan party. On Friday, the PPP filed a petition seeking Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification from elections, citing violations of the electoral code of conduct based on PML-N advertisements that showed Sharif appearing together with Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. In a Friday order, the Supreme Court upheld an appeal seeking the disqualification of PML-N candidate Chaudhry Saifullah Gill from the PP-61 Faisalabad seat, based on allegations of holding a fake education degree.
• Voting Irregularities: Rawalpindi police officials report a shortage of manpower and say they have withdrawn officers from some outlying sensitive-designated polling stations. Delays in the delivery of ballot papers on Friday in Rawalpindi have also been reported.
• Protests and Violence: Pakistan Awami Tehreek leader Tahrir-ul-Qadri planned a protest against the elections in Lahore on election day, although there are no reports of substantial participation. Polling at one station in Okara for the NA-145 constituency has been suspended after reports of clashes between rival armed groups.

Sindh Election Reports

• Karachi Bombings: A bomb detonated near a polling station in the Qaidabad neighborhood, killing eleven people and injuring as many as 50, and apparently targeting an ANP candidate, Amanullah Mehsud. Later in the day, a bombing on a bus in the Qasba Colony neighborhood killed at least two people. No confirmed claims of responsibility have yet been reported for either incident.
• Candidates Killed, Kidnapped: Shakil Ahmed, an independent candidate for the PS-95 constituency affiliated with the MQM-Haqiqi (a breakaway faction of the MQM), was killed in a clash between armed groups in Karachi’s Landhi area on Friday; two other supporters were also killed. The Sindh Election Commission tells Dawn that polling in the constituency will be postponed following Ahmed’s death. Allama Nasrullah Madani, a PPP candidate for the PS-125 constituency, and Asghar Abbas, a candidate for the Majlis-i-Wahdatul Muslimeen party for the NA-253 constituency, are also reported to be missing and are suspected to have been kidnapped. [ET]
• Boycotts and Voting Irregularities: There are multiple reports of late starts to polling, allegations of rigging, and clashes between rival groups across parts of Karachi and Sindh. In a statement, the Election Commission acknowledged that it had “failed to hold free and fair elections” in the city, suggesting that some results may be annulled. One candidate is said to have been arrested for tampering with ballot boxes. The Jamaat-e-Islami has accused the MQM of being directly involved in vote-rigging and violence, and announced it was boycotting the elections in Karachi and Hyderabad. Late in the day on Saturday the MQM-Haqiqi also announced it would boycott the elections; the PTI and PML-N have also issued statements protesting results in Karachi. The MQM in turn has said that its “mandate was being hijacked” in the Lyari neighborhood, where Nabil Gabol, formerly of the PPP, recently switched to join the MQM and faces opposition from the local People’s Amn Committee organization; Gabol said he would boycott the elections there. [ET] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET] [ET] [ET]

Khyber-Paktunkhwa Reports

• Bombings: As many as twelve people were injured when a bomb exploded near a school that was serving as a polling station in Peshawar’s Charsadda Road area. A failed suicide bombing near a mosque in the Peshawar suburbs was also reported. Five people were injured in a bombing in Mardan.
• Polling Suspension: Polling for the NA-46 Kurram Agency constituency was suspended at the Jalozai camp for displaced persons after rivals alleged that the incumbent candidate, Hamidullah Jan Afridi, had mobilized fake refugees to boost his support. [ET]

Balochistan Reports

• Bombings and Attacks: One security officer was killed in an attack on a convoy carrying ballot papers in Mastung on Friday; the militant Balochistan National Front has called for a strike on election day, although four of the leading Baloch nationalist parties are participating after boycotting the 2008 polls. At least four people were injured in a bombing near an ANP election camp in Quetta. Two bombings in the Naseerabad district killed one person and injured seven. A clash between unidentified rival groups in Chaman has killed at least three people.

Commentary

• Electoral Violence, a Good Sign for Pakistan’s Democracy? – “The apparent increase in the extremists’ use of violence in this historic election is a sign, not of their strength, but of their increasing irrelevance in a society that is moving forward with regular, competitive elections between mainstream parties.” [Megan Reif and Nadia Naviwala, AfPak Channel]
• Change That Already Happened – “Traditional political power in Pakistan is under threat of a wave of youthful energy and integrity in Pakistan… A cleansed and more experienced PTI will be a much better candidate for future national and provincial government than the compelling but flawed PTI of 2013.” [Mosharraf Zaidi, The News]
• Pakistan’s Tyrannical Majority – “The candidates campaigning in this election, rather than arguing for the rights of all Pakistanis, have further marginalized religious minorities and given license to those who attack them.” [Manan Ahmed Asif, NYT]

Pakistan-Afghanistan Update: Pakistan Readies for Saturday Polls; US Officials Downplay Afghan Basing Interest

Sign up to receive this update by email.

Topline

• The campaigning period formally ends in Pakistan as polls are set to take place tomorrow, with parties making their final campaign pitches. The Pakistani Taliban have reportedly called for attacks on polling stations around the country. The Pakistani army has agreed to a last-minute Election Commission request to deploy military personnel inside some polling stations, rather than as a separate quick-reaction force. U.S. officials stress that they are not seeking “permanent” military bases in Afghanistan, after remarks by Pres. Karzai suggesting that he would agree to extend access to nine such facilities, provided the U.S. continues broader military and economic aid to the government.

Pakistan — Security

• Election Violence: In a letter addressed to the Pakistani Taliban’s top spokesman, commander Hakimullah Mehsud is reported to have called for attacks across the country, including in Punjab and Sindh, on election day. Responding to an Election Commission request, the army has agreed to modify its security plans and deploy troops within the “most sensitive”-designated polling stations. On Friday, a bomb in the main Miram Shah bazaar reportedly killed four people; the target is unclear, although the Express Tribune indicates it was “close to party political offices”. Also on Friday, a bomb exploded near PPP election offices in Quetta, wounding five people. On Thursday, a rocket was fired at the residence of the head of the Balochistan National Party-Awami, Mir Israrullah Zehir in Khuzdar, Balochistan; no casualties were reported. [ET] [Dawn]

Pakistan — Politics and Diplomacy

• Preparations for Saturday Polls Underway: The formal campaign period concluded on Thursday evening as Pakistan readies for election day. Polling will run from 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM on Saturday, May 11. Presiding electoral offices with magistrate powers will assume control of polling stations around the country beginning the evening of May 10. On Thursday, Pres. Zardari signed into law a new ordinance to allow overseas Pakistani nationals to make absentee votes in future elections; no plans are in place for such a system during this round of elections, however.
• Final Campaigning: In final campaign pitches, Imran Khan, still under hospitalization, addressed supporters by video, as did PPP leader Bilalwal Bhutto, who has refrained from making public appearances during the campaign. While the PPP is expected to retain its hold over rural Sindh, its candidates in Punjab face a significant opposition and it has conducted only limited campaigning outside former Prime Minister Gilani’s home of Multan. Nawaz Sharif led an evening rally in Lahore, although he cut back several additional planned speeches through the day, with party officials citing security concerns. In a Dawn interview, Sharif remains vague on his plans for coalition formation after the vote, saying that he still hopes to win a “clear majority”. The PPP and ANP have reached a compromise seat adjustment agreement to withdraw candidates challenging each other in Karachi, following the ANP’s withdrawal on Wednesday of all its candidates facing against the PPP in rural Sindh. The WSJ and Reuters focus on the participation of Baloch nationalist parties in the elections, despite continued attacks by rival separatist factions and military crackdowns. The Guardian profiles Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat leader Maulana Ahmed Ludhianvi, campaigning for a seat in Punjab despite his group’s nominal ban for its links with sectarian violence. Dawn highlights several bellwether National Assembly contests around the country. [ET] [AFP] [Reuters] [AJE] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET] [CBS] [BBC] [WSJ]

Pakistan — Economics and Development

• Energy Crisis: The head of the group of nine independent power producers (IPPs) tells the Express Tribune that they are still owed Rs 57.48 billion in government dues, and that without the release of funds their collective generating power is only 1,600 megawatts. The Ministry of Petroleum has announced the suspension of natural gas supply to several inefficient power generators and has instead redirected the gas to four of the IPP plants. Gas supply to the Karachi Electric Supply Company and Pakistan Steel has also been halted in an effort to force payment of dues to the Sui Southern Gas Company.

Pakistan — Remainders

• Attorney General Advises Against Treason Charges for Musharraf [ET]
• Three Killed in Kurram Checkpost Attack [Dawn]
• Supreme Court Issues Contempt Notice Against Prime Minister Khoso Over Senior Civil Service Appointments [Dawn]
• Supreme Court Issues Detailed Verdict in Reko Diq Mining Case [Dawn]
• Report: Promises and Policies: Reviewing Party Manifestos for the 2013 Elections – “This report will cover the parties’ plans in five major areas, namely economy and  energy, the social sector, women and minorities, extremism and terrorism, youth and foreign relations.” [Ahmer Naqvi, Jinnah Institute]
• Report: The Evolving Role of Women in Pakistani Politics – “Despite [growing female voter registration], Pakistan’s political parties have done little in this election cycle to facilitate women’s participation in the political process.” [Huma Yusuf, NOREF]
• Commentary: It’s Morning in Islamabad – “Whatever the election result is on May 11, a young and fragile democracy is going to take a giant leap.” [Mosharraf Zaidi, Foreign Policy]

Afghanistan — Security

• Basing Agreement: Following public remarks by Pres. Karzai on Thursday suggesting that the U.S. was negotiating to retain access to nine military bases in Afghanistan after 2014, the U.S. embassy in Afghanistan stressed that “we do not seek permanent military bases in Afghanistan”; the White House National Security Council spokeswoman said that “any U.S. military presence would only be at the invitation of the Afghan government and aimed at training Afghan forces and targeting the remnants of al Qaeda”. Karzai indicated that the bases in question would be in Kabul, Bagram, Mazar-e-Sharif, Jalalabad, Gardez, Kandahar, Helmand, Herat, and the Herat district of Shindand. Karzai said that he was willing to grant the U.S. access, on the condition that it “intensify efforts in the peace process, strengthen Afghanistan’s security forces, provide concrete support to the economy—power, roads and dams—and provide assistance in governance”. [AJE]

Afghanistan — Remainders

• Kapisa Governor Escapes Assassination Attempt [AP]

Pakistan-Afghanistan Update: Former Prime Minister Gilani’s Son Kidnapped in Multan; Anti-Pakistan Protest Turns Violent in Kandahar

Sign up to receive this update by email.

Topline

• Former Prime Minister Gilani’s youngest son, Ali Haider Gilani, a Punjab assembly candidate, has been kidnapped by unidentified gunmen in an attack in Multan on Thursday. Campaigning in Pakistan will end at midnight on Thursday ahead of Saturday’s vote. The Election Commission has written to the army and request the direct deployment of military personnel at polling stations. Afghan protests against Pakistan continue around the country; police clashed with on a group of protestors they say had been infiltrated by Taliban militants in Kandahar’s Maiwand district on Wednesday, killing at least eleven. The Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction has argued that the U.S. should begin to withhold funding to the Afghan government if it fails to make progress on addressing corruption.

Pakistan — Security

• Gilani Son Kidnapped: A group of more than a dozen gunmen attacked a PPP rally in Multan on Thursday and kidnapped Ali Haider Gilani, the youngest son of former prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani. He is reported to have been injured in the incident and his personal secretary, identified as Mohammad Muhiuddin, was also killed in the attack. The younger Gilani is a candidate for the PP-200 Punjab provincial assembly constituency; his two elder brothers, also candidates in the elections, say they will boycott polls and will not allow elections to take place in Multan if he is not freed. Police have reportedly sealed the city and are conducting search operations; no claim of responsibility has yet been reported. [BBC] [AJE] [Dawn]
• Other Election Violence: A Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies tally of violence in April reports as many as 77 election-related attacks in which at least 110 people were killed and 723 injured, with the majority of deaths occurring in militant attacks. In Turbat, Balochistan, two people were killed in an attack on a PML-N rally. A bombing targeting an ANP leader’s home in Bajaur Agency on Wednesday killed two party activists and wounded another. In North Waziristan, one person was killed on Thursday in a bombing targeting the offices of Maulana Jamaluddin, an independent candidate. Pamphlets distributed in North Waziristan have warned women not to take part in the upcoming vote. [Dawn] [ET] [AJE]
• Election Security Measures: On Monday Chief Election Commissioner Ibrahim reportedly wrote directly to Gen. Kayani requesting the direct deployment of army personnel inside polling stations, not as a quick-reaction force, as has been ordered by the caretaker government and called for in current security plans. The Election Commission has come under criticism from political parties over its management of security preparations, including a formal protest from Pres. Zardari. [Dawn] [ET] [Dawn]
• Drone Strikes Illegal, Peshawar High Court Rules: On Thursday, the Peshawar High Court ruled that drone strikes on Pakistani territory were equivalent to war crimes and in violation of human rights and the UN charter, and ordered the government to take steps to halt their use, as well as providing compensation to victims.

Pakistan — Politics and Diplomacy

• Election Preparations: Midnight Thursday is the official end of public campaigning ahead of voting, which will take place on Saturday, May 11. The Election Commission has announced a ban on the use of mobile phones inside polling stations. The National Database and Registration Authority, which holds responsibility for issuing Computerized National ID Cards, which serve as voter identification, said that those holding expired cards would still be allowed to use them to vote.
• Election Campaigning: The NYT looks at the tension between Imran Khan’s national-level calls for political change and the local-level realities of a political system generally organized around patronage disbursal and the delivery of development funds. In a look at the impact of political dynasties, Dawn notes that approximately 44% of the outgoing national and provincial assembly legislators had relatives serving in previous assemblies. Dawn profiles the PML-F’s efforts to challenge the PPP in Sindh. Talal Bugti and Aali Bugti, leaders of two factions of the Jamhoori Watan Party in Balochistan, have announced their intention to boycott the upcoming polls, saying they have been blocked from returning to their home district of Dera Bugti by the security services after being displaced in army operations in 2007. Doctors say that Imran Khan has suffered multiple minor fractures in his backbone from yesterday’s fall during a rally in Lahore but that he had not suffered head injuries and can recover; Khan is scheduled to address supporters by video later today. [BBC] [AP] [ET] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Dawn]

Pakistan — Remainders

• IMF Likely to be Next Pakistan Government’s First Stop [Reuters]
• Three Killed in Attack on Peshawar Police Checkpost [ET]
• Five Paramilitary Soldiers Kidnapped in Kalat [Dawn]
• Pakistani Prisoner Injured in Retaliatory Attack Dies in Indian Prison [BBC] [AFP]
• Government Seeks Rs11 Billion for Pakistan Steel [Dawn]
• Supreme Court Asks Musharraf to Clarify Legal Representation in Writing [ET]
• Caretaker Government Bans Office Air Conditioners in Conservation Effort [ET]
• Investment Drops to Lowest in Years [ET]
• Commentary: The Definitive Five Rupees Election Post – “Barring something catastrophic, the PPP and MQM will retain most of their seats in Sindh …the PPP has become largely uncompetitive in North and Central Punjab though, which is worrying for a party with federal credentials.” [Umair Javed, Five Rupees]
• Commentary: Can Pakistan Legally Shoot Down US Drones? – “If the new Pakistani government were to argue that the use of drones within its territory are illegal and were indeed bold enough to take the unprecedented step of shooting one down, it would have a strong case under international law that it was acting in “self-defense,” provided it has not consented to drone strikes.” [Dawood Ahmed, AfPak Channel]

Afghanistan — Security

• Clash at Kandahar Anti-Pakistan Rally: At least 11 people were killed when Afghan security forces opened fire on protestors in Kandahar’s Maiwand district on Wednesday. Afghan authorities claim that the Taliban had infiltrated the rally, in which protestors, some apparently armed, denounced Pakistan following amid recent border tensions. Kandahar government officials have suggested that the gunmen were “sent there for specific purposes from the other side of the Durand Line”. A civilian cargo helicopter also crashed at an adjacent airfield during takeoff, although there are conflicting accounts as to whether that incident was linked to the clash between police and protestors. Protests continued in Nangarhar and Helmand on Wednesday, with local students calling for jihad against Pakistan; the Kunar provincial governor has repeated accusations that Pakistan has constructed border posts on Afghan territory in the province as well and called for military reinforcements. [AFP]
• US Seeking to Retain Nine Bases, Karzai Says: Speaking at Kabul University on Thursday, Pres. Karzai said that U.S. negotiators were seeking to retain access to nine military bases around the country after 2014, which he was ready to agree to provided Afghanistan receives unspecified “security and economic guarantees” first.

Afghanistan — Economics and Development

• Aid Oversight: Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction John Sopko told a Washington audience on Wednesday that “we need to have the courage to withhold funding if progress is not made by the Afghan government” in administering donor assistance and controlling corruption. Sopko cited a specific example where the Afghan government had failed to freeze an account in which investigators had identified roughly $50 million in stolen U.S. funds, leading to its dispersal. SIGAR will focus the bulk of its audits this year on the readiness of the Afghan national security forces, he indicated.

Afghanistan — Remainders

• U.S. Soldier Under Investigation for Throwing Rocks at Presidential Portrait in Kunar [NYT]
• Three Civilians Killed in Helmand Roadside Bombing [TOLO]
• Putin Calls for Strengthening Russian Defenses Against Afghan Insecurity [Reuters]
• Parliament Withdraws Impeachment Summons for Interior and Finance Ministers [TOLO]